Sam Becomes a Category 3 Hurricane

By The New York Times, New York Times

Hurricane Sam strengthened into a Category 3 storm as it moved west across the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters said Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center said the storm was “small but dangerous” and was forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane by Sunday.

“Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so,” the center said.

The hurricane was just under 1,100 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands as of 11 a.m. Eastern time Saturday, moving at 10 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, according to the center.

The Saffir-Simpson scale classifies major hurricanes as Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds above 110 mph.

The swells generated by the hurricane were forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week and have the potential to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the center said.

Beyond the swells, it was “still too early to tell what impacts might occur in the United States,” Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist at the hurricane center in Miami, said Saturday.

Sam, which formed Thursday in the central Atlantic, is the fourth named storm to develop in less than a week and the 18th overall in a busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.

“All folks need to do right now is check the latest forecast as we get into next week,” Feltgen said. He said people should ensure they have a hurricane plan, including supplies, in place.

Also Friday, Subtropical Storm Teresa formed north of Bermuda, becoming the 19th named storm of the hurricane season. Teresa has a small window to “intensify slightly,” but it is likely to dissipate by Sunday and also is not expected to threaten land, forecasters said.

After Sam and Teresa, the next named storms would be Victor and Wanda.

If forecasters go through the list, they will turn to an additional set of names approved by the World Meteorological Organization this year. That list begins with Adria, followed by Braylen and Caridad.

“With more than two months to go in the hurricane season, it is certainly possible that the 2021 Atlantic list of names will be exhausted,” Feltgen said. Last year, there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and move to using Greek letters. It was the most named storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and the second-highest number of hurricanes.

This year, the arrival of peak hurricane season — August through November — has led to a run of named storms that formed in quick succession, bringing stormy weather, flooding and damaging winds to parts of the United States and the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Odette formed Sept. 17, followed days later by Peter and Rose. All three storms have since dissipated.

Tropical Storm Mindy hit the Florida Panhandle on Sept. 8, just hours after it formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and as a powerful Hurricane Larry was simultaneously churning in the Atlantic. Ida battered Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane Aug. 29 before its remnants brought deadly flooding to the New York area.

The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming more apparent. A warming planet can expect stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms — though the overall number of storms could drop, because factors like stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.

Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.

Ana became the first named storm of the 2021 season May 23, making this the seventh year in a row that a named storm developed in the Atlantic before the official start of the season June 1.

In May, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast that there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, six to 10 of which would be hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher in the Atlantic.

The agency updated its forecast in early August, predicting 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, by the end of the season Nov. 30. This article originally appeared in The New York Times.